Indonesia’s Democratic Decline: What Prabowo Means for German–Indonesian Partnership

Indonesia is emerging as a vital German and European partner. Yet under President Prabowo Subianto, concerns about autocratisation are mounting. This event explores Indonesia’s political shifts, civil society resilience, and what democratic backsliding means for Germany’s strategic-partnership choices.   

As the EU-Indonesia Free Trade Agreement advances and high-level visits multiply, Indonesia’s partnership with Europe and Germany is deepening. Yet the mode of rule under President Prabowo Subianto – a retired general with a controversial past – raises urgent questions about democratic backsliding. His administration’s recentralisation of power and expanded military role in civilian sectors signal troubling governance shifts in Southeast Asia’s largest democracy. Despite these concerns, civil society is proving remarkable resilience through its growing protest movements. Islamic groups, representing 85 per cent of the population, play a pivotal role in shaping political responses to the new administration. This GIGA Talk examines what is afoot in Indonesia under Prabowo: the democratic risks, sources of resistance, and what this means for Germany’s strategic-partnership choices. 

Speakers:  

Dr. Abdil Mughis Mudhoffir is an Alexander von Humboldt Research Fellow at the GIGA Institute for Asian Studies and Hamburg Institute for Advanced Study (HIAS). His research interests include democratisation and civil society movements in Indonesia and Southeast Asia. 

Dr. Saskia Schäfer is a Senior Research Group Leader at the Humboldt University of Berlin with extensive experience at Columbia University, United States, and the Chinese University of Hong Kong. Her forthcoming book Mobilizing Mainstream Islam: The Politics of Orthodoxy in Indonesia in Comparative Perspective will be published with Cornell University Press in January 2026. 

Dr. Andreas Ufen is a Senior Research Fellow at the GIGA Institute for Asian Studies and Editor of the Journal of Current Southeast Asian Affairs. He works on politics in Southeast Asia, in particular on democratisation and autocratisation in Indonesia and Malaysia. 

Moderator:  

Prof. Dr. Christian von Soest is a Lead Research Fellow and Head of Policy Exchange and Berlin Office at the GIGA. 

Registration:   

Please register. All registered participants will receive further information with details of the online event and a link to participate.       

Event location: 

GIGA Berlin Office, Friedrichstraße 206, 10969 Berlin 

Zur Veranstaltung (LINK)